Bitcoin Could Still Face a Final Leverage Flush Below $80K, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin’s recent sell-off may not be finished yet, according to several market analysts who believe the crypto market could undergo one more sharp “leverage flush” before conditions stabilize.

Crypto analyst James Check described the recent downturn as a “2-sigma long liquidation event”—a statistically significant shock that wiped out a large portion of overleveraged speculative traders.

While most excess leverage has already been purged, Check warned that Bitcoin often seeks out the final pockets of risk-taking before forming a durable bottom.

“The market has an incredible nose for sniffing out the last remaining leverage. We wouldn’t be surprised to see price wick down into the $70K–$80K zone to flush the final holdouts.”

A 2-sigma liquidation refers to a price swing that is two standard deviations beyond normal volatility—large enough to trigger widespread forced selling and margin cascades across futures markets.

Over the last 10 days alone, Bitcoin has shed more than $24,000, plunging to a seven-month low of around $82,000 on Nov. 21.

Stabilization Appears — But Caution Remains

Despite the turbulence, some signs suggest that Bitcoin may have found at least a local bottom.

Augustine Fan, head of insights at crypto platform SignalPlus, told Cointelegraph that sentiment and technical indicators show the market is deeply oversold:

“Markets are extremely oversold on both technical and sentiment metrics. Unless a new shock emerges—such as forced selling by digital asset treasuries—prices have likely seen temporary lows.”

Fan expects Bitcoin to trade within a consolidation range of $82,000 to $92,000 in the near term. He highlighted $78,000 as the next major support level:

“A sustained break below $78K could open the door to deeper losses, but that is not the base scenario for now.”

On-Chain Data Shows a Potential Local Bottom

Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant also reported signals of a developing recovery phase.

Analyst Carmelo Alemán said the market currently reflects:

• Institutional redistribution

• Structural fragility

• Early signs of rebound momentum

These factors combine to suggest that Bitcoin may be forming a local bottom, though not necessarily the final one.

However, Alemán warned that the crucial whale cohort holding 1,000–10,000 BTC continues to sell into weakness. Their behavior is key to confirming a broader trend reversal.

“The recovery is promising, but a true end to bearish conditions requires whales to stop distributing and start accumulating.”

A Final Flush or a Multi-Week Consolidation?

The market now stands at a crossroads:

Scenario 1 — Final Leverage Flush Below $80K

• One last liquidation cascade

• Whales continue distributing

• New lows toward $70K+ possible

• Cleans the remaining excess leverage

Scenario 2 — Bottom Has Formed

• Whales slow down selling

• Demand gradually returns

• Multi-week consolidation before recovery

• Higher-low pattern begins to form

Historically, deep liquidations near 2-sigma events have marked the end of major drawdowns in past cycles. But analysts emphasize that whale accumulation will be the deciding factor.

Bitcoin has now dropped more than $24K in 10 days, and more than 30% from its early-October all-time high above $126,000. Whether the market has fully reset—or is bracing for one last cascade—remains the key question.